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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.